Regatta
Calibrated, asset-specific odds on the clinical and regulatory events that move biotech.
Today nobody rigorously and numerically estimates biotech events.
Opinions, not numbers
KOL panels, analyst reports, and gut-feel base rates give every drug in a class roughly the same odds. When they are wrong, the investor pays — the analyst does not.
Paid for the wrong thing
Conventional research is paid for time, for coverage, or for data licensing. None of it is paid for being right. Incentives and accuracy point in different directions.
Real money on the line
A single PDUFA verdict can halve a multibillion-dollar stock. Decisions of that magnitude deserve a calibrated probability, not a consensus shrug.
Mock prediction markets create dynamic, specific probabilities.
Forecast
Forecastable readouts are added continuously. Live odds re-price as evidence arrives — FDA actions, primary endpoints, advisory committee votes.
Score
Analysts are evaluated on calibration-weighted accuracy across resolved events. Per-forecaster track records are visible to subscribers.
Select
Accurate analysts are rewarded; inaccurate ones are eliminated. Selection pressure ratchets the aggregate accuracy upward over time.
Retrospective and methodology research on biotech catalysts.
Biweekly. What predicted past readouts in retrospect, advisory-committee voting patterns, and decomposition methodology on resolved historical cases. No forward predictions, no hype.
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We launch in August 2026 with live markets on the biotech catalysts that move valuations. Tell us a little about you and we will reach out before the doors open.
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